Beyond the AV vote: Why Greens should see this result as an opportunity

Last week produced some fantastic results for the Greens across the United Kingdom, including an amazing opportunity here in Brighton for us to prove our mettle as a viable local authority. That said, the results were tinged with the depressing resolution of the AV campaign, which was comprehensively lost with 68% of those who voted rejecting a change to the voting system. To many Greens that I’ve spoken to since the referendum, a mood of resignation has descended, especially for those areas where results weren’t as favourable for the Green Party. The prospect of reform seems further away than ever.

However, I was always a little concerned that we were putting a lot of eggs in one basket. Pinning hopes on a change that will produce modest gains in support for us isn’t a sustainable strategy. It felt like a panacea for our electoral ills and risked letting us off the hook of undertaking the heavy lifting of developing local groups around the country. Yesterday, I read an interesting piece on The Daily (Maybe), which highlighted the close relationship between those local areas who voted “Yes” to AV and those that had (or until recently had) successful Green representation in their local council.

For me, the lesson is clear. We have proved in places like Norwich, Lewisham, Brighton and Oxford that with strong organisation, sound local policies and tenacious candidates, we can make gains even with a voting system stacked against us. We need to concentrate now on winning seat by seat. Over the longer term, this provides us a stronger base and voice with which to make the case for reform, if and when the next opportunity occurs. This ties in with a point I made in my last post, when I argued that one of the greatest challenges to the Green Party is capacity-building and mentoring potential activists and candidates. Now more than ever, successful local Green parties need to invest time back into sharing their strategies and working methods with regions where we need to expand, such as the North-east of England.

Coupled with this, we need to understand why the AV referendum failed. It became a proxy verdict on the Liberal Democrats entering into coalition with the Conservatives. As I mentioned in my pitch for people to vote yes, it was terribly difficult to disentangle the fair rationale for change from party political advantage. We need to make the case better and argue for a more proportional system than AV alone would have delivered. (I would favour AV Plus, which steps toward proportionality but retains the constituency link that British voters treasure). The Green Party needs to draw together our best minds and work out two or three killer lines to sell on the doorstep, alongside two or three on why First Past The Post doesn’t work any longer in multi-party politics. We didn’t quite nail it last time. Lets leave criticism of our opponents out of it. The silver bullet is to make a cast iron case for fairness to all voters, regardless of party affiliation.

There is going to be no short-cuts on our journey, but we have momentum and the right arguments on our side.

Local Elections 2011: The battle for Brighton commences!

Early this morning, I found myself walking in drizzle towards a polling station in a staunchly Conservative corner of Brighton. I have to admit it felt that my start to this year’s local elections was an inauspicious one. In spite of first appearances, it is turning out to be quite a special day.

What has really struck me is the solidarity I felt with the people I’ve been matched with outside polling stations. I’ve chatted to more Conservative activists today than I’ve ever done before and in spite of being diametrically opposed to many of each other’s policies, it has been enjoyable to get a different perspective on Brighton life. On top of that, it’s heartening to hear from people passionate about putting their energies into our local community. My faith in human nature has received a boost today from the most unlikely quarter.

But how is the election looking on the ground at 7pm? I’ve spent around six hours monitoring votes outside polling stations throughout the day and I’ve been surprised at the complete lack of Labour or Liberal Democrats activists working alongside us. In both wards I’ve been in (Withdene and Queen’s Park), Labour is the obvious challenger to the incumbents, yet I’ve not seen anybody gathering up data for tonight’s “knocking up” of voters. This will cost them valuable time tonight in mobilising their vote.

That lack of organisation, especially in Queen’s Park, where they have put a massive amount of money, activists and time in to try and dislodge our three Green councillors, has taken me aback a little. Others are reporting a similar lack of sightings of Labour activists in both this ward and others. Either there is a strategy to focus heavily elsewhere in the city or the rumours of their renewed strength have been exaggerated.

It is obvious that turn-out is going to be a little lower than expected too. Although I’ve worked some of the less prominent time-slots, I was surprised at how patchy the numbers were coming through the door. That said, those individuals coming in were younger than I’ve seen previously, so we may be getting the vote out well for the Greens and potentially the AV referendum.

I’m heading out again to try and encourage voters into the polling booths fairly soon, but will try and tweet updates from both the street and the count in the next few hours too. Watch this space and my twitter feed for more detail!

Next week, I’ll be analysing the impact they will have upon Brighton Council in some depth and how the Greens locally should react to the new political circumstances here. I’ll also be unravelling the aftermath of the AV campaign, which at this stage is looking exceptionally disappointing for those of us who support a change in the electoral system.

And a final word for all my colleagues within Brighton & Hove Green Party, who have been an inspiration for their commitment not just to working the campaign, but for taking the time to engage so regularly and energetically with the people we hope to represent. I really hope that their efforts translate into a chance to build and sustain new ambition for this city.

Why saying YES to AV is a vote for accountable politics

A third of the public is still undecided on AV. I suspect part of the reason why they remain to be convinced is that there are two conversations taking place in every announcement on AV: debating the merits of the policy change itself and pushing naked party political advantage. We seem unable to divorce one from the other and as a result, cynicism is rife about this referendum. I’ll try my best to honestly disentangle them.

For me, the main reasons I favour AV are around fairness:

· First Past The Post (FPTP) worked as a system when we were largely a two-party state, but now smaller parties fare much worse under it in proportion to their national vote. Change would take us a closer step towards proportionality, albeit modestly.
· One of the striking things I noticed at the time of the expenses scandal was that MPs (from all parties) who held the safest seats were more likely to abuse the system. I’d argue that solid majorities leave politicians less concerned with how their voters perceive their behaviour. The need to earn second preference votes will inevitably force them to change this outlook.
· The extremist parties such as the BNP won’t be able to use AV to gain a foothold in Parliament because their support is shallow beyond their first preference core vote.
· It won’t cost any more than FPTP.
· You still only get one vote, just more of an investment in your representatives, because they will be voted for by at least 50% of voters.

Looking at my self-interested Green Party perspective:

· Yes, research seems to indicate that there would be a reasonable improvement for our electoral chances. Traditionally, many people don’t vote for us because they fear their vote would be wasted, when they should vote tactically to prevent a disliked party getting into office. AV would allow them to give us their first preference, knowing that if we don’t succeed, they still have their insurance policy vote. This would allow voters to express real choice.
· Even if it doesn’t translate into seats, I argue that it would effect public perceptions of us and force the media to engage with us more seriously. Over the longer term, this shift would serve to build confidence in us amongst voters who wouldn’t ordinarily consider us.
· Under AV, second preference votes will become essential in elections. It means that the other major parties would be more likely to court our voters on our issues in order to obtain their second preferences. This should translate into our policies being championed by others, which I am not going to argue with!

I believe this change represents a modest step in the right direction. It’s by no means a perfect model, but I can’t lose sight that this fight has been going on for decades. At least this incremental change takes us a step further towards a more fair and proportional system - and AV would be likely to strengthen the hand of those political parties truly committed to longer-term change and overhaul of democracy.

At a time when the public is disenchanted with politicians, this referendum is a wake up call for them to listen to us, account for our views and fight slightly harder for our votes. Why would you sniff at the chance to tell politicians we expect more?